Predictions for 2026

08 Jan, 2026

Below are 42 predictions I’ll make for 2026.

Predictions are fun, but the goal here is to not just to get things right, it’s to correctly calibrate myself. The idea is that if think 10 different things are 80% likely, ideally 8 of them will happen. If all 10 happen, I’m just picking easy stuff.

So I’m going to set two thresholds—80% and 20%. Which threshold each prediction fall into will be indicated after the prediction. To be specific, an 80% prediction means I’d theoretically lay a bet on it at 4-1; in other words, I think the event is 80% or better to happen. A 20% prediction, of course, does not mean I think the event is likely to happen; It means I’d take a bet on it at 4-1.

We can all come back next year and see how well calibrated I was and either congratulate or laugh at me.

Second Session, 119th Congress

1. Congress overrides at least one presidential veto.¹ (80%)
2. No reconciliation bill passes. (80%)
3. The legislative filibuster is not significantly altered. (80%)
4. No government shutdown in February. (80%)
5. No government shutdown in October. (80%)
6. Multiple rules fail on the floor in the House. (80%)
7. At least one impeachment considered on House floor under Rule IX. (80%)
8. At least one Member censured on House floor. (80%)
9. At least one successful discharge petition.² (80%)
10. ACA Health Care Subsidies extended. (80%).
11. A House Member announces for the presidency. (20%).
12. Significant legislation regulating AI. (20%).

Trump Administration

12. One or more cabinet-level officials leave the administration. (80%)
13. Three or more cabinet-level officials leave the administration. (20%)
14. Trump approval ratings under 40 at least once on Silver Bulletin average. (80%)
15. Trump approval rating never goes over 47 on Silver Bulletin average. (80%)
16. Trump approval rating under 36 at least once on Silver Bulletin average. (20%)
17. The United States does not acquire Greenland. (80%)
18. Total deportations drop compared to 2025. (80%)
19. U.S.-backed ceasefire agreed to in Russia-Ukraine. (80%)
20. Strategic Bitcoin reserve created. (20%).

Supreme Court

21. Court rules against Trump in the tariff case. (80%)
22. At least one justice retires. (20%)

Markets and Economics

23. S&P 500 has greater than 5% returns. (80%)
24. No discernible AI bubble emerges. (80%)
25. PCE inflation remains under 3%. (80%)
26. Unemployment remains under 5%. (80%)
27. Bitcoin hits $135k this year. (20%)

Elections

28. Democrats control the House coming out of the 2026 election. (80%)
29. Dems have more than 228 House seats. (80%)
30. Dems have more than 245 House seats. (20%)
31. Democrats gain seats in the Senate coming out of the 2026 election. (80%)
32. Democrats control the Senate coming out the election. (20%)
33. Schumer out as Democratic leader after election. (80%)
34. Johnson out as Republican leader after election. (80%)
35. Massie defeats Trump-backed primary challenger. (80%)
36. A Democrat announces for the presidency. (80%)
37. A Republican announces for the presidency. (20%)

Sports

38. The U.S. men’s hockey team wins a medal. (80%)
39. The U.S. men’s hockey team wins the gold. (20%)
40. The Washington Capitals make the playoffs. (80%)
41. The Washington Capitals win their division. (20%)
42. Another major sports betting scandal. (80%)

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#policy #politics #predictions