Thought experiment: pessimism about liberal democracy
I was asked to make the case for being bearish on liberal democracy around the globe, over the next 20 years. Here it is:
Liberal democracy's comparative advantage is/was largely tied to capitalism; the economic value of the rule of law, property rights, and predictable + transparent policymaking are huge for nations. Free markets work, and they work better when paired with civil liberties and British-style good government.
Capitalism itself was long thought to foster political liberalization. No authoritarian system, it was thought, could harness the economic benefits of capitalism without creating a middle-class that would demand political reform. To choose authoritarianism was to be economically inferior. To choose capitalism was to liberalize.
China is proving this theory wrong. Authoritarian capitalism does work.
Once authoritarian capitalism is proven as a viable alternative to liberal democratic capitalism, suddenly it's comparative advantages come to light. Like efficient public investment in infrastructure and stable long-term state planning even in the face of public opposition.
This model is likely to spread, if existing authoritarian systems see it as a viable route to economic advancement.
Liberal democracies will need to take increasingly authoritarian actions in order to compete with the authoritarian capitalist states. The comparative weaknesses of the liberal democracies will force them to choose between economic growth and liberalism.
AI will accelerate all of this.